Friday, December 02, 2005

New Tight Strategy

Okay, here's the theory. You play online 3-4 tables.You sit at the NL500 [or 200 just adjust] and purposefully buy-in for $140. Yep.
You only play AA, KK, QQ, and AK. You shove every hand with these PF. Play no other hands.

[BB limps to you, we'll ignore for now.]Often, the pot will be $40-$60 already due to raisers/callers; on average.You shove. Say there were 2 limpers and a raiser, pot = 2+5+5+5+40. That's $57, but let's round to $60 for ease of math.

You shove for $140, a raise of 100, assume other players are normally stacked.Pot is now $200, he's getting 2-1 to call with presumably a good hand. In addition, other 'slowplayers' may come along for the ride - people who limped with JJ-99, or the blinds, etc.

Obviously with the above 4 hands, you will dominate most players who will call getting 2-1. Good times. For instance, *I* would call with AK at this point, and be dominated twice, tied once, race once. [Because I wouldn't know that's all you played.]
If you win, leave the table, start again elsewhere. If you lose, stay and rebuy. [Or leave, either way.]If all folded to you, sweet! You won $60 and now have $200. Repeat 1-2 more tries, if all fold, leave with your $150 or whatever, if called, see above. [n.b. I also gotta believe if you did this and showed down a huge pair each time, you could seriously steal the same people when you ran into them later, but that's not the reason for doing this. Side benefit.}

Given that you can do this online, and at several sites, this seems like a Dominating Strategy. {Particularly if you get one of those hands early, or more}. I think one could win $30/hr or more, if disciplined. Bankroll shouldn't be much of an issue, not going to be taking $1k-2k beats on one hand, or even one day [highly unlikely.]

Are you going to lose with AK to JJ and QQ to KK occasionally? Of course. But those losses will be de minimus in the long-run.

Thoughts?

Metagame AAA hand

I had decided this was to be my last orbit, and I would limp in UTG on final hand, regardless of what hand I got, and then attempt to outplay over-aggressive villian in Cutoff. I had been about 12/2 at this table, Then this hand comes up, and it's all MetaGame from there on out.

$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, November 29texastech03 posts small blind [$2].mscotto posts big blind [$4].** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RonMxicoDonk [ Ah As ]RonMxicoDonk calls [$4]. Whoa. I didn't expect this. I limp here fully expecting either Nguyen - very Taz, or Rocket to raise. I have about 8k hands on Rocket, he's 30/12/2.6 and usually raises the limpers from CO/Button. Neither of them have ever seen me limp AA.
folded toJasNguyen81 calls [$4].Rocketmagic7 calls [$4]. Damnit. Well, that's what I get for FPS.mscotto checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ac, 9c, 5d ]Okay, this is an unexpected development, and my first set of the night. Given the number of players, I know Rocket will bet big if checked to, and nguyen is super-agg as well, will bet any pair/ace here. I have even more hands on him, 10k or so. Normally, I would always bet something here, representing a flush draw or TP and hope for multiple callers or a raise behind, but given they all limped I switch it up.mscotto checks.RonMxicoDonk checks.JasNguyen81 checks. Darn.
Rocketmagic7 bets [$30]. Jackpot!! Note he bets 30 into 18 pot representing TPTK or two pair or similar, trying to push draws out.mscotto folds. Try to put Rocket on a hand here and on the turn.RonMxicoDonk calls [$30].
Now, I seriously thought about raising here, but Rocket knows me as a very passive player post-flop, I could easily have a hand like TT here in his mind [and I almost always would].JasNguyen81 folds.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2h ]RonMxicoDonk checks. I really wanted to bet out here, but was confident that Rocket would again bet any draw or any pair. You'll enjoy his hand at showdown. Ah, metagame, how I love thee!Rocketmagic7 bets [$55]. Wow, I'm getting good at inducing these.
RonMxicoDonk is all-In.Rocketmagic7 calls [$36.20]. Spew.
** Dealing River ** [ 2c ]Rocketmagic7 shows [ 7s, 5c ] two pairs, fives and twos.
RonMxicoDonk shows [ Ah, As ] a full house, Aces full of twos.RonMxicoDonk wins $257.40 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of twos.
Rocket reloaded after the hand. I almost stayed. ;)

Proud of this hand

***** Hand History for Game 3104269591 *****$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, November 27, 13:29:28 EDT 2005Rocketmagic7 posts small blind [$2].SevenLine posts big blind [$4].**

Dealing down cards **Dealt to RonMxicoDonk [ Js Jh ]Siggen73 folds.acesup777 folds.akfromqueens calls [$4]...RonMxicoDonk raises [$8].
pgfmr82 folds.Rocketmagic7 folds.SevenLine calls [$4].akfromqueens calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, Jc, Jd ]SevenLine checks.akfromqueens checks.RonMxicoDonk checks.Wow, like wow. I check to let someone hit their flush. I start thinking very, very hard about how to play the turn and river here against these two. I pray someone has something.**

Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]SevenLine checks.akfromqueens checks.RonMxicoDonk bets [$4]. [Okay, I feel like I have to bet weak here to get any action. I'm actually afraid this will scare them off, but want to play this like a 'donk.'SevenLine folds.akfromqueens calls [$4].

** Dealing River ** [ Qh ]Damn, no flush.akfromqueens bets [$25].Okay, how to milk this for all it is worth? All-in? Min-raise? Raise pot? I think I can induce a bluff with a raise slightly more than minimum. AKfromQ is a 0.85 post-flop agg player. So I run my time almost all the way down and...RonMxicoDonk raises [$60].
akfromqueens raises [$250]. [Thank you, gods of poker]
RonMxicoDonk is all-In.
akfromqueens shows [ 4d, 5d ] a pair of jacks.
RonMxicoDonk shows [ Js, Jh ] four of a kind, jacks.